ASSOCIATION BETWEEN PM2.5 CONCENTRATION AND DENGUE INCIDENCE: A ROBUST REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF THREE REGIONS IN INDIA

Aarushi Joon¹, Antonia Maria Heroiu^1*, Kush Shah¹. 

1.BHSc, Faculty of Health Sciences, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada, K7L 3N6.

Corresponding Author:  BHSc, Faculty of Health Sciences, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7L 3N6; 99 University Ave, Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7L 3N6, Email: antonia.heroiu@queensu.ca, Phone: 647-636-0278.

Citation: Aarushi Joon, Antonia Maria Heroiu, Kush Shah (2026). Association Between PM2.5 Concentration and Dengue incidence: A Robust Regression Analysis of Three Regions in India. Eco Science Journal.2026 3 (6). 

Copyrights © 2026, Aarushi Joon. This article is licensed under the Creative Common Attribution-NonCommercial-4.0-international-License-(CCBY-NC).

Abstract: Dengue fever primarily spreads through the bite of the female Aedes aegypti mosquito, with symptoms including headaches, muscle and joint pain, rash, and fatigue, which may progress to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or dengue shock syndrome (DSS). In January 2024, there were over 500,000 dengue cases and 100 deaths globally.

Particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) is a significant air pollutant capable of penetrating the lungs and entering the bloodstream. The Indian government’s National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) aimed to reduce particulate pollution by 20-30% nationally by 2024. However, separate studies have suggested a negative correlation between PM2.5 levels and humidity and a positive correlation between relative humidity and dengue incidence. This study aimed to analyze the relationship between dengue incidence and PM2.5 concentrations. We hypothesize that increased PM2.5 may be associated with reduced dengue incidence due to its potential effects on humidity and dengue vector breeding conditions.

The relationship between PM2.5 concentrations and dengue incidence in Delhi (2006-2021), Kerala (2006-2021), and Karnataka (2002-2021) was analyzed using robust regression models in RStudio. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. Analyses demonstrated a significant negative association between PM2.5 and dengue cases in Delhi (p = 0.0158) and a significant positive association in Karnataka (p = 0.0405). The association in Kerala was not statistically significant (p = 0.0731). These findings suggest the relationship between air pollution and dengue incidence is complex and warrants further investigation to inform air quality and vector-borne disease management strategies. 

Keywords: Dengue, PM2.5, incidence, Delhi, Kerala, Karnataka.